Summit County Colorado Blog

The Breckenridge Colorado real estate market is feeling the effects of the Great Recession. Breckenridge homes, condos and land have all seen an increase in the available inventory and a reduction in the number of sales when compared to the market highs during the 2005-2007 time frame. This has lead to a reduction in sale prices for all three property types.

Breckenridge land sales have been especially hard hit. In 2006 there were 260 vacant lots sold in Breckenridge. In 2009 there were only 40. And about half-way through 2010, it would appear that this year is going to be about the same as last.

The decline in land values that have resulted from the reduction in the number of transaction has been dramatic. The following are just a few examples of Breckenridge Colorado land sales during the past year showing the magnitude of the losses that vacant lot Sellers are experiencing:

1. LOT 146 HIGHLANDS AT BRECKECKENRIDGE (835 GOLD RUN ROAD) : The Seller had paid $550,000 for this land on 05/31/07 and sold it for $403,000 on 08/14/09.

2. LOT 200 HIGHLANDS AT BRECKENRIDGE (834 PRESTON WAY) : The previous owner of this land had paid $427,500 for it on 07/24/07. Now the bank has it under Contract after having listed it for a price of $297,900.

3. LOT 109 HIGHLANDS AT BRECKENRIDGE (517 HAMILTON COURT) : The previous owner of this vacant lot bought it for $435,000 on 10/01/07. Now the bank has it listed for $265,500.

The above are just a few examples. There are many more like these in Breckenridge and all throughout Summit County Colorado. And land value loss paints only part of the picture when it comes to the Breckenridge Colorado land market. Another important aspect of this market is the relation of available land inventory to the number of vacant lot transactions taking place.

As of this writing, there are 283 vacant lots for sale in Breckenridge Colorado. This is more than has ever sold in a single year and is about 6.5 times more than has sold in the previous 12 months. This concept can be further broken down by price range:

• Between $250K and $400K, there are currently 51 active vacant lot listings with 8 closings in this price range during the previous 12 months. This equates to about a 6.5 year available inventory.
• Below $250K there are currently 111 active vacant lot listings with 21 sales in this price range during the previous 12 months. This equates to about a 5.25 year available inventory.
  
• Above $400K there are currently 124 active vacant lot listings with 15 sales in this price range during the previous 12 months. This equates to about a 8.25 year available inventory.

By comparison, there is about a 2 year inventory of single family homes for sale in Breckenridge and about a 2.25 year inventory of multi-family properties (i.e. condos, townhomes, duplexes, etc.).

Of course all of this is bad news for those who have Breckenridge Colorado real estate for sale. But it could be great news for those looking to buy Breckenridge real estate, especially when it comes to those interested in purchasing vacant land.

If you would like to learn more about the Breckenridge land market, contact Ted Amenta – Breckenridge Colorado Real Estate Broker at (970) 453-8025 or visit http://www.amenta.com/ for listing details and photos of all active Summit County Colorado real estate listings.

Copyright 2010 – All rights reserved by Ted Amenta
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The Summit County Colorado Real Estate market is feeling the full force of the recession. In fact, market data shows that the market decline began about the same time that Bear Sterns collapsed. Prior to that time, Summit County had been fairly immune to the problems facing much of the rest of the real estate industry throughout the US. There are many reasons for this, among them:

1. Compared to the rest of the country, Summit County has a fairly low percentage of sub-prime borrowers and the loan defaults that plagued other markets was not much of a factor in Summit County.
2. Summit County did not experience the speculative bubble that occurred in some other markets. Being a four sessions destination resort market, most Summit County real estate Buyers purchase for the purpose of personal use and/or tourist rental income, not with the intent to sell in the short term.
3. In the absence of the speculative bubble, and being surrounded by mountains and National Forest, over development in Summit County did not take off as it did in other markets.

Of course, there are counter-examples to each of the above points which are included only as a comparison to other markets and to give a general overview of the real estate market in Summit County leading into the first quarter of 2008. To a large extent, the Summit County real estate market had been, and continues to be, defined by the overall US economy and not necessarily the trends within the real estate industry as a whole.

And with the exception of a hand full of talking heads and Wall Street bail-out recipients, most of the rest of us know that the economy is not doing well.

The recession has resulted in a decline of Summit County real estate sales prices, number of sales, and overall sales volume. Meanwhile new listings continue to come on the market resulting in an abundance of inventory.

One of the hardest hit sectors of the Summit County real estate market has been vacant land as the following chart will show:

To investigate the above table further, the following will examine the lots that sold in Breckenridge Colorado during 2009 in the $400,000 to $500,000 price range:

• The first was a resale of a lot in the Highlands at Breckenridge for $403,000 on 08/14/09. In this case, the Seller had paid $550,000 for the land on 05/31/07 when the market was it its peak.
• The second was a sale by the developer of Western Sky Ranch in Breckenridge of a 4.98 acre lot for $499,000 on 09/22/09. Being a developer sale, there is no previous sales information for this property. But, the closest comparable sale within Western Sky Ranch for the adjoining lot of 3.58 acres which sold for $725,000 on 01/04/08, also prior to the market contraction.
• The third was another resale in the Highlands at Breckenridge on 11/03/2009 for $465,000 which was originally listed for $599,000 on 06/16/2009. The Seller of this property purchased it in 1996 for $165,000.
• The fourth was a sale in the Warriors Preserve subdivision which was originally listed for $595,000 on 01/03/2008 and which sold for $415,000 on 12/11/2009. The Seller’s purchase information is not available.
• The fifth was a lot in the Warrior’s Mark West subdivision for $420,000 which was originally listed for $550,000 on 06/16/2009. Once again, The Seller’s purchase information is not available.

Five sales in a narrow price range do not define the entire Breckenridge real estate market for vacant land. Breckenridge does not define Summit County as a whole. And the market for vacant land does not directly translate to that of residential property. But the most generalized Summit County Colorado market data also shows inventory up, transactions down, and prices reflecting these facts.

There are also some positive signs for what the future of the Summit County real estate market may hold:

• Interest rates are down. As of this writing, the interest rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage is about 5%. A year ago it was about 6%. This means a lower monthly payment of about $63 per $100,000 borrowed. Alternatively, a $1,000 a monthly payment a year ago would cover a mortgage of about $167,000. Today, this same payment would cover a mortgage of about $186,000.
• In anticipation of inflation, money is moving toward hard assets. The recent record high prices of gold reflect this. Real estate is also a historic hedge against inflation and the discrepancy between the price of gold and the price of real estate is near the highest in US history. In other words, it now takes fewer ounces of gold to buy an average home than almost ever before. And with bullion and numismatic gold becoming increasingly difficult to find, and the inventory of available real estate on the rise, how long can this trend last?
• Colorado is one of the states projected to be the least impacted by the recession. Unemployment in Colorado is lower than the national average, personal income is higher, and the Colorado economy has significant high-tech, natural resource, and alternative energy sectors.
• Bloomberg recently reported that Vail Resorts Inc., which owns both Breckenridge and Keystone, is projecting skier visits and overall bookings to be up this ski season over last and one component of the Summit County real estate market is rental income generated from renting homes and condos to tourists.

With inventory up and prices and interest rates down, this may be the ideal time to invest in Summit County real estate. For more information, contact Ted Amenta – Summit County real estate agent.

The following conversation involves a specific Breckenridge condo in the $250K to $300K price range as well as the general Breckenridge real estate market conditions:

Client> Where do you see the market going this Spring?  Any stronger?

I hope that the market strengthens this spring and summer.  So far, I have seen little evidence of this happening.  Summit County real estate sales volume in January ’09 was down about 60% from what it was in January of ’08.  We started seeing the market contract in the spring of last year.  Sales data comes out about one month after the end of the month.  This gives time to get the public records updated.

My office seems to have had a good February but people I know in other offices are not telling me that they are seeing an increase in activity so this may just be a statistical anomaly for us.

Looking forward, I anticipate an excess of inventory.  In fact we are already there.  In the past 12 months, there were 432 sales of properties in the Breckenridge area priced over $100K.  At the moment, there are 771 such properties on the market.  This would be a slightly high number of active listings in July and is very high for us now.  I expect to see 1000+ such properties on the market this summer.

More specific to this particular property, there are currently 34 Breckenridge condos for sale priced between $250K and $300K.  There were 10 sales in the past 12 months in this price range.